Simulating The Impacts Of Climate Change On Wheat (Triticum Aestivum L.) Crop In Prayagraj Of Uttar Pradesh, India Using Ceres-Wheat Model

Abstract

CERES-Wheat model was used to assess the impact of climate change on wheat crop in different combinations of elevated temperature and CO₂ concentrations. Additionally, we used Marksim GCM-GFDL CM3 data under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario (Near term (2010-2039), Mid century(2040-2069) and End century (2070-2095) to project the future change in wheat crop yield.The generated data were used to assess the impact of climate change on phenology and yield of Wheat crop using CERES-Wheat model. Already calibrated and validated genetic coefficients of wheat varieties grown in North India viz., Malviya 234, PBW 550, PBW 502 were collected from literatures (Singh et al., (2010), K.K singhet al., (2010), Jaswinder et al., (2013), Vinay et al., (2018).Malviya 234 variety sown on 22/11/1980, PBW 550 on 25/11/1980 and PBW 502 sown on 02/12/1980. Seasonal analysis tool was used and weather man tool was used where weather data from 1980-2010 was imported and run the model.The results showed an increase in temperature, rainfall in future projections at the study site. The wheat crop yield were found to be vulnerable(3-20% decrease) by increasing temperature(1-4℃), however, a higher concentration (>2% increase)was observed for crop yield under elevated CO₂ levels (450–850 ppm). The combined effect of increased temperature and elevated CO₂ had a beneficial effect on crop yield but elevated temperature hastened wheat crop yield. The maximum yield decrease was observed in the scenario RCP 8.5, which ranged from 2906 kg/ha to 2353 kg/ha for Malviya 234 cultivar and for cultivar PBW 550 yield reduced from 2881 kg/ha to 2280 kg/ha whereas December sown cv. PBW 502 ranged from 2893 kg/ha to 2165 kg/ha decreased.The findings of my study are consistent with k.ksinghet al., (2014) that showed reduced wheat crop yield in Varanasi (RCP 2.6,4.5,6.0,8.5) for NT, MC and EC.Temperature is directly related to plant development. Hence, an increase or decrease in temperature directly affect the crop yield.

The findings suggest the development of a efficient water use, heat tolerant wheat variety and improved farm management strategies in the near future to assist the productivity and to adapt to the changing climate in northern India.