Analysis Of COVID-19 Infections In India Using SIR Model

Abstract

The ongoing Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019. The pathogen COVID-19 is a cause of concern across the world as the human to human infection caused by it is spreading at a fast pace. It has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of May 25, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 5,503,459 confirmed infections and more than 346,774 reported deaths worldwide.

India’s multipronged response included non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) like intensive case‑based surveillance, expanding testing capacity, social distancing, health promotion, and progressive travel restrictions leading to a complete halt of international and domestic movements (lockdown).

The main focus of this study is to propose conceptual model for the COVID-19 outbreak in India, with and without the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., travel restrictions, hospitalisations and quarantine.

In this paper, we discuss a predictive mathematical model that can give us some idea of the fate of the virus, an indicative data and future projections to understand the future course this pandemic can take. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of Covid-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak by building Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model.