Prisoner Recidivism: A 6-year follow-up Period (2012-2017)

  • Bizhan Shabankhani, Jamshid yazdani charati, Ali Abbasi, Maryam Khazaee-Pool, Keihan Shabankhani, Saeid Kaviani Cherati


Investigations in different countries show that a significant proportion of inmates return to prison after conviction and release, and this rate is more than 50% in some areas. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prisoners recidivism time and to determine the factors influencing it. To do this, survival data analysis and Cox regression were used. This study was simple random and 4110 prisoners were selected at random from prisoners who had ended their sentences during 2012.Then prisoners status was assessed until the end of 2017 using the information recorded in the their case. Variables in this study are based on variables in the administrative section of the prison organization, age, sex, marital status, education, type of primary crime, date of return, date of initial release, and length of initial sentence. Life table analysis, log-rank test and Cox regression model were used for data analysis. 1163 (%28.3) returned to prison prior to the end of the study due to re-offending. Prisoner survival after release from the first to sixth years was 86%, 80, 76, 73, 72 and 71%, respectively. Variables in this study were considered as significant factors in survival based on log-rank test at 0.05 level. According to the results of the Cox model, the risk of Return to Prison for women is 30.9% the risk of Return to Prison for men