Development of Economic Activity Cycles Modeling in the Conditions of the Intellectual-Information Society Formation
The article substantiates the objective necessity of modeling the cycles of economic activity in the dynamic conditions of functioning of the information and innovation society. The object of the study is the processes of cyclical development of the world system and its structural elements. The subject of the study is a set of theoretical, methodological and practical bases on the process of modeling the complex economic dynamics of the cyclical macroeconomic movement of the global system and its effects on the empirical relationship between the level of innovation and the dynamics of changes in sales of business entities. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the processes of modeling of cycles of economic activity by different models in the conditions of constant tendency of deviation of the economic system from the state of equilibrium and correlation trends of change of macroeconomic drivers in corresponding directions. The proportional dependence of the harmonic oscillations of interconnected economic spheres by homogeneous second order differential equations with the characteristic equation with a common solution is determined. It is proved that these harmonic oscillations with a certain amplitude, initial phase, and frequency are certain regularities of changes. A two-factor model is introduced, according to which the coefficient of adaptation of one factor's change concerning the interdependent with the justification of the desired (normative) ratio of these factors, which characterizes the direction of change of the latter, is introduced. It is proved that the new Keynesian theory explains the essence of cyclicality by fluctuations of demand, the imperfection of market levers, rigidity of the price policy, and remuneration. The cycles of economic activity are considered periodic deviations from the equilibrium trajectory. It is proved that the processes of nucleation of a cycle leading to the implementation of nonlinear models of economic systems development. The theory of complex economic dynamics by adaptive neoclassical model of growth using the equation of capital accumulation, production function, and utility function of consumption flow is presented. It is argued that finding a universal model of economic development in general, and in particular of national economies, business structures is not promising because of the diversity of needs, interests, values of economic entities, as well as the influence of many other factors.It is proved that this necessitates the development of an appropriate strategy for each structural unit, whereby the transition to a new economic state can be realized at the point of bifurcation and is caused by cyclical fluctuations of the economic system. The prerequisites for the growth of the national economy are: technologicalization, intellectualization, the coherence and unification of values, goals with structural transformations, and the political and social system. The model of strategic behavior of national companies with the identification of directions of growth is offered: diversification, economy, deconcentration, and dynamic development of interconnected industries, innovation.