Modeling of Cyber-attack Intentions Analysis Reflecting Domestic / International Situations

Abstract

Recently, the aspect of cyber-attack is closely related to the situation in domestic and international situations. Particularly, cyber-attacks are used as means of subjugating, coercing, and expelling opponents to achieve political goals. A cyber-attack may be a goal in itself, but it may also be used as a means to achieve other goals. In the case of North Korea, it has been used as a means of revenge to prevent Sony Pictures' release of the movie, and it is trying to turn the surveillance of neighboring countries through cyberattacks in order not to detect the nuclear test. Therefore, when analyzing the cyber- attack’s goal or intention, it is expected that it will be able to identify more accurate attack intention considering domestic / international situation. We confirmed the reliability through association analysis to identify the relationship between past cyberattack cases and the situation. And we proposed an intention analysis indicator and a model that can predict cyber-attack intention reflecting domestic / international situation. The proposed model of cyber-attack intention analysis is composed of two analysis modules; a cyber-attack pattern analysis module and a situation reflected intention analysis module. The cyber-attack pattern analysis module identifies attack techniques and targets to predict the result of the cyber-attack. The situation reflected intention analysis module generates the situation indicators and identifies the attack intention by fusing the attack pattern derived from the cyber-attack pattern analysis module.