Statistical Analysis and Outbreak Prediction of Covid-19 in India

Abstract

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus named as “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)” on 11th February 2020. The first case of eventually identified novel coronavirus was reported by Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, China, in Wuhan, Hubei Province on 31st December 2019. Later, it has spread all over the world and hence declared as Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization of 30th January 2020. The SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 epidemic has grown to 17,748,365 total cases and 681,974 deaths as on 31st July 2020 in the world. 

In this project, an outbreak of this disease is analyzed for India with the data available till 30th July 2020 and predictions have been made for number of cases in next few days. The data sets are statistically analyzed with the consideration of current recovery rate, death rate and healthcare infrastructure available in India. SEIR model have been used for the predictions based on data available from John Hopkins University repository and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (Government of India) in the time period of 1st April 2020 and 31st July 2020.

The analysis covers the impact of exposed population and preventive measures taken during last four months in terms of emergency lockdown and social restrictions. It also considered the available hospital infrastructure in India and its impact on various stages of pandemic and possibility of outbreak.