Design and Simulation of Gannan Forest Change Based on CAMarkov Model

Abstract

Changes in forest cover are a matter of global interest. Gannan is an important ecological barrier in southeastern China. As rapid urbanization has led to increasing illegal occupation of forest land, more attention must be paid to forest resources in Gannan. This study aimed to explore changes in use of forest land in Gannan, China based on Landsat TM/ETM remote sensing data for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. By grouping forest land use into four categories, we mapped land use/land cover change (LUCC) and predicted future patterns. The study were divided into 3 parts: 1) mapping LUCC in the region between 2000 and 2005; 2) applying the Markov–cellular automata technique to these maps to predict potential changes in 2010 and to test the accuracy of the prediction; and 3) predicting the land cover distribution in 2020. Results show that: In 2000-2005, Woodlands tended to change from high canopy density to low canopy density forest lands, which indicated degradation of forest stands. If patterns of land use change continue, the extent of closed forest, shrubbery and open forest will decrease. In Gannan, woodland area is increasing but woodland quality is declining, which means that forest resources are undergoing degeneration.