Assessment of Future Meteorological Drought in Bhima basin based on CMIP5 Multi-model Projections

Abstract

Agriculture in India is an important activity to aid economy and more than 70% of Indians livelihood is dependent on this. South Western monsoon contributing major part of rainfall and 75-90% of this rain occurs in only four months (June to September) thus, causing abnormalities in monsoon precipitation to trigger drought frequency in most part of the country. Rapid urbanization has put forth the everlasting demand for water for drinking as well as for industry. The pattern of rainfall, shifts in the season and non-sustainable development owing to urbanization has disturbed the demand and supply mechanism of water resources in the Bhima river basin. After examination using 12-months SPI, ‘Mild to Moderate’ drought events occur extensively under RCP 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios. ‘Severe’ drought events under RCP 6.0 scenario dominates other RCPs scenarios. Lastly, the ‘Extreme’ droughts events occur extensively for RCP 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios. RCP 8.5 scenario has unclear drought characteristics owing its highest emission of GHG as per IPCC thus, making this more ambiguity in possible predictions of drought events.