Modification in the Geographical Distribution of Environmental Conditions for Malaria in Colombia under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

It analyses the changes in the spatial distribution of environmentally potential conditions for malaria over Colombian territory under two climate change scenarios by the middle of the 21st century. For this purpose, geospatial modelling reproduced the distribution of current malaria conditions for the country, using climatic data from the reference period 1976-2005.  The results of this simulation were validated against the reported statistics, finding a high concordance between the modeled and the observed. Subsequently, two possible climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 6.0) were taken for the period 2011-2040 and the possible future distribution of conditions environmentally favorable for malaria was generated; As a result it was obtained that in the two scenarios for the period analyzed, the optimal and favorable area would cover more than 60% of the Colombian territory, located mainly in the Amazon, the Caribbean, the savannahs of the Orinoquia, the pacific and the inter-Andean valleys of the Magdalena and Cauca river.