Change in Spatial Distribution of Vegetation Zones in Colombia Associated to Climate Change

Abstract

To identify the effects of climate change on the Colombian biotic environment, the vegetation over the country was simulated by using the Holdridge model based on climate data for the 1976-2005 reference period with 900-m spatial resolution. In the simulations of the current climate, vegetation types with highest territorial coverage were subhumid tropical forest, tropical dry forest and wet Andean forest. The validation of these results was made by comparing the simulated distribution of vegetation versus the country's ecosystem map, and a high degree of approximation was found between the spatial vegetation patterns modeled and the spatial ecosystem distribution observed. Simultaneously, the vegetation for the 21st Century was simulated by using climate data generated by a regional climate model in two scenarios 4.5 and 6.0 for the period 2011-2040. By comparing the distributions of the current (1976-2005) and future (2011-2040) period, the possible changes in vegetation during those periods and scenarios was established. As a result, the following were obtained: in the two scenarios for the future period analyzed, a part of the area with high-altitude vegetation will be occupied by dry forest now observed in lower altitudes; the most dramatic change occurs in the 6.0 scenario. The most affected vegetation formations are the páramo and the high Andean vegetation types, which in the frame of the scenarios explored will disappear by the middle of the 21st Century.