Analysis Using Corenostos Model of the Biogas and Leachate Production In The Sanitary Landfill of a Megacity

Abstract

The transformation of lifestyles, continuous expansion of industry, and commercial development in economic sector has been accompanied by rapid increases in the municipal solid waste production. When municipal solid waste is deposited in a sanitary landfill, a decomposition process begins in which the materials are transformed in water, gas, and stable matter. During the decomposition process are generated biogas and leachate that interact with the environment. The objective of this paper is to simulate the biogas and leachate production in the sanitary landfill of a Latin American megacity (Bogotá, Colombia) using Corenostos Model. A comparative analysis is performed between the forecasts of Corenostos Model and the data observed in the sanitary landfill of this megacity. The temporal tendency in the forecast of biogas and leachate production by Corenostos Model is like that observed in the sanitary landfill. Namely, an initial period of maximum biogas and leachate production is observed and subsequently a period of reduction in its production is also detected. Corenostos Model tends to overestimate (mean absolute percentage error = 50.1%) and underestimate (mean absolute percentage error = 53.7%) the biogas and leachate production observed in the landfill, respectively. Analysis with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models shows that the monthly time series of biogas and leachate flow time series have a short memory. Specifically, there is at most one influence of the immediately preceding month.