Approaches to Foreign Trade Risk Assessment Between Ukraine and South Asia

Abstract

We analyze the scientific development of econometric modeling of the state’s foreign economic activity, and single out main avenues of development. We establish the issues of econometric modeling of regional export-import operations as insufficiently covered. We determine that further research is required on the development of economic and mathematical models to optimize the foreign trade operations of the regions, taking into account the characteristics of a particular region and appropriate information systems to automate this process. We then analyze export-import operations of foreign trade relations between Ukraine and the countries of South Asia based on the statistical analysis of indicators of export-import quotas. We correlate random values ​​of export-import quotas that are considered as compatible and dependent random variables. We also construct the two-dimensional normal law of distribution of export-import quotas of foreign trade relations of Ukraine and the countries of South Asia. We find analytically and establish the basic scattering ellipse with admissible values ​​of export-import quotas established in common time.