Substantiation of a Method of Assessing and Forecasting of Socio-political Situation Complexity Level

Abstract

The article outlines the theses of the method for assessment and forecasting of social tension impact on the level of complexity of socio-political situation. The structure of input and output data was determined. A model was developed for determining current estimates of the complexity of the operational environment. The method is based on determining the distribution density of social tension assessments. The method uses a truncated normal distribution law of a random variable. The random values in the method are current or forecast estimates of social tension, obtained from the monitoring of indicative factors within a certain administrative territory of the state. An approach to correctly correlate the current complexity of the operational environment with one of the determined four levels is proposed.

Keywords: forecasting of complexity of socio-political situation, mass riots, social tension