Substantiation of a Method of Assessing and Forecasting of Socio-political Situation Complexity Level

  • G. Drobaha, I. Lipatov, V. Batsamut, S. Horielyshev, I. Tovma

Abstract

The article outlines the theses of the method for assessment and forecasting of social tension impact on the level of complexity of socio-political situation. The structure of input and output data was determined. A model was developed for determining current estimates of the complexity of the operational environment. The method is based on determining the distribution density of social tension assessments. The method uses a truncated normal distribution law of a random variable. The random values in the method are current or forecast estimates of social tension, obtained from the monitoring of indicative factors within a certain administrative territory of the state. An approach to correctly correlate the current complexity of the operational environment with one of the determined four levels is proposed.

 

Keywords: forecasting of complexity of socio-political situation, mass riots, social tension

Published
2020-06-06
How to Cite
G. Drobaha, I. Lipatov, V. Batsamut, S. Horielyshev, I. Tovma. (2020). Substantiation of a Method of Assessing and Forecasting of Socio-political Situation Complexity Level. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, 29(5s), 10867-10878. Retrieved from http://sersc.org/journals/index.php/IJAST/article/view/25100