Prediction of Monthly Mean Temperature by SARIMA Model
The monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature time series for four different stations of India were collected, modeled and forecasted between 1966-2015. In our forecasting the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Riddle-Smith seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average is used with R software. It is demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.
Keywords: Forecast, Hydroclimatic, SARIMA, Time series.